Superforecasting (download)

In work (and life) we’re making (and receiving) predictions all the time - from when that all important project is going to ship to how a core business metric is going to move over the next few weeks via how long it might take to hire that critical role. Working to refine and understand this skill felt important, and Philip Tetlock’s book sets out a few core behaviours and techniques used by the very best. As I make a prediction or listen to those of others I often find myself running through them as a mental checklist. This deck summarises those principles so you can commit them to memory (use bounds, be a thoughtful updater, sanity check your answers post-prediction!) and improve both the accuracy of your predictions and the quality of your decision making.