Quoting Philip Tetlock
Apr 10, 2025
The master speaks on AI 2027 forecasts. The discussion of these forecasts has been rumbling on. Kokotajilo himself puts the probability of a supercoder on a 2027 timeline at around 50%
I’m also impressed by Kokotajilo’s 2021 AI forecasts. It raises confidence in his Scenario 2027. But by how much? Tricky! In my earliest work on subjective-probability forecasting, 1984-85, few forecasters guessed how radical a reformer Gorbachev would be. But they were also the slowest to foresee the collapse of USSR in 1991. “Superforecaster” is a description of past successes, not a guarantee of future ones.