I definitely don’t agree with all the predictions here (why do AI nerds always get obsessed with making geopolitical predictions?) and after the end of ‘26 everything goes a bit crazy. However, I see a lot of weak, poorly specified AI predictions so when you see one this detailed I think it is worth paying attention to. As they note, after the end of ‘26 the confidence level drops off. I’d suggest stopping reading at that point to save yourself the time (it’s highly speculative), though the predictions are quite fun.

There’s a prediction on coding capability by March ‘27:

According to a recent METR’s report, the length of coding tasks AIs can handle, their “time horizon”, doubled every 7 months from 2019 - 2024 and every 4 months from 2024-onward. If the trend continues to speed up, by March 2027 AIs could succeed with 80% reliability on software tasks that would take a skilled human years to complete.

With this further note:

All forecasters place 2027 as one of the most likely years in which an SC (supercoder) might be developed.